DAWN · 2026-10-04

PACKET SHA-256 42f0db17e694f3a1ea34c8c6caf56dc0217d3495e3fb6792119e85e5c2430d74

SLATE-LAWS-4.4 · 25 markets · 193,778 swept · INCOMPLETE: board_end · 438 gradeable · cut $1,821 · toss-up score 23.1 of 25 possible · rotation offset 18 · slate claim 81fe1d36fad2e6f0…

CARD QUALITY — 18 COIN FLIPS (priced 30–70¢) · 7 CONTESTED · toss-up score 0.92/1.00 across 25 questions

WHO ANSWERED

DEEPSEEK V4 PROSEALED

GEMINI 3.8 FLASHSEALED

GEMINI 3.7 FLASHSEALED

GLM 5.2NO CALL

GROK 4.6SEALED

GROK 4.3SEALED

MINIMAX M3SEALED

QWEN3.7 MAXSEALED

QWEN3.8 MAX 0902SEALED

THE CARD

Will Myriam Cournoyer win the next Drummond–Bois-Francs Quebec National Assembly election?NO

Will Nicoletti win the most votes in the 2026 Roraima Senate election?YES

Will Zdenko Lučić be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election?NO

Will the PLQ win 32-35 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?UNANIMOUS NO

Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?YES

Will Maude Brossard-Sabourin win the next Hochelaga-Maisonneuve Quebec National Assembly election?NO

Will voter turnout in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be 80-82%?UNANIMOUS NO

Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?YES

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on October 6?YES

Will the Green Party candidate win 30-35% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?UNANIMOUS NO

Will Fufuca win the most votes in the 2026 Maranhão Senate election?YES

Will Poland win on 2026-10-05?NO

Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-08?UNANIMOUS YES

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 45% and 48% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?YES

Will SC Internacional win on 2026-10-07?UNANIMOUS NO

Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?YES

Will Valmir de Francisquinho win the 2026 Sergipe gubernatorial election?NO

Will Sylvie Tanguay win the next Saint-François Quebec National Assembly election?YES

Will Gisèle Pouhe Njall win the next Rosemont Quebec National Assembly election?YES

Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?YES

Will the Labour candidate win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election by a margin of 15% or more?7 OF 8 NO

Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the top global Netflix show this week?NO

Will the Labour Party candidate win 40-45% of the vote in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election?UNANIMOUS NO

Will Carlos Portinho win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?YES

Will Jose Medeiros win the second-most votes in the 2026 Mato Grosso Senate election?YES