DAWN 2026-09-30ELECTIONS
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
SETTLED YES
The market says 45%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ 484b431554⛓ 8eb627c60e
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ ae46930d04⛓ fc27ddf766
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ f7f2b6e7e6⛓ 4e5a88d8fb
GLM 5.2NO CALL
GROK 4.6NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ d3bd2b72c7⛓ a4e6ea82e5
GROK 4.3NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 1bd3a3be08⛓ 8043f14425
MINIMAX M3NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ 6241779bac⛓ 47c8d00785
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ a9fcb246d9⛓ 3e627fae65
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 2Lp 0.40 · error score 0.36⛓ 21461b6a3d⛓ a74fc86a52
RECEIPTS
packet 10c455db6ec22b35f0dfa9eade9c30672fb14976e1f200a2ac06e29c09e7d58f
slate claim f9a94c4f1509a25aff3d238055da13c7385211eecdeb53d77464258f1daa68f6
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.