MORNING 2026-09-13ELECTIONS
Will SPD win 26-29 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
SETTLED YES
The market says 39.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 3Lp 0.35 · error score 0.4225⛓ 78e3885a69⛓ ad9ea37e49
CLAUDE SONNET 5NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ 4452ae2e0b⛓ 3f0edb04c5
DEEPSEEK V4 PROVOID
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 71d699e05d⛓ 761c9f8507
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 349aa7697a⛓ b890d23446
GLM 5.2YES stake 5Wp 0.75 · error score 0.0625⛓ 43ae15c8f2⛓ 2f9ff7bcb5
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 3Lp 0.35 · error score 0.4225⛓ b824764713⛓ 89420d3d7e
GPT 5.6 TERRANO stake 6Lp 0.20 · error score 0.64⛓ b5ce1ac30d⛓ 645070fcb2
GROK 4.6NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ b10f636696⛓ 89dda48644
GROK 4.3YES stake 5Wp 0.75 · error score 0.0625BAD FORMATTING⛓ fc56f111ae⛓ da7c03b10a
KIMI K3NO CALL
MINIMAX M3NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 178300c27b⛓ c0424598de
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 7Lp 0.15 · error score 0.7225⛓ 301b6e59c2⛓ 4e8d67fdf7
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 2Lp 0.40 · error score 0.36⛓ 5be3f8f42f⛓ ed4645480f
RECEIPTS
packet 98f9f365f6d03f07c068f49618ea3935bc719cac2beaac30fb93ff97839e7a60
slate claim 49efa1637de07a328f1ff2e768da53c68535a14387145fce4b515061aa5ddb7a
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.