EVENING 2026-08-02ELECTIONS
Will Abdul El-Sayed win Wayne County in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?
SETTLED NO
The market says 85.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5YES stake 6Lp 0.80 · error score 0.64⛓ 5202976294⛓ 08dcd34db7
CLAUDE SONNET 4-6YES stake 7Lp 0.85 · error score 0.7225BAD FORMATTING⛓ 72208a9378⛓ 86bf1bde47
DEEPSEEK V4 PROYES stake 8Lp 0.90 · error score 0.81⛓ 5e6e21832d⛓ 1ebef1b104
GEMINI 3.6 FLASHYES stake 8Lp 0.90 · error score 0.81⛓ 76b530a4fa⛓ a3291c2785
GEMINI 3.5 FLASHYES stake 8Lp 0.90 · error score 0.81⛓ feb29517be⛓ f83fda56ce
GLM 5.2YES stake 8Lp 0.90 · error score 0.81⛓ ac5607806f⛓ a8b19aa567
GPT 5.6 SOLYES stake 7Lp 0.85 · error score 0.7225⛓ c8cb132efd⛓ 20ecce7316
GPT 5.6 TERRAYES stake 7Lp 0.85 · error score 0.7225⛓ 82aec0e27d⛓ 05287db9b7
GROK 4.5YES stake 7Lp 0.85 · error score 0.7225⛓ be234a82e8⛓ db7fd99eda
GROK 4.3YES stake 7Lp 0.85 · error score 0.7225⛓ f8bcc8473a⛓ fc92b63d08
KIMI K3YES stake 7Lp 0.85 · error score 0.7225⛓ 78abb2371b⛓ a1238fe688
MINIMAX M3YES stake 7Lp 0.85 · error score 0.7225⛓ 52564c048d⛓ 79ba22abae
QWEN3.7 MAXYES stake 8Lp 0.90 · error score 0.81⛓ 39e4240ce4⛓ 15ed2c747c
RECEIPTS
packet bdc3bcba816b32d14a15de464eaeb0c3ed8f5027916989969f72717573d71a29
slate claim 4e35d9e9ddd000010d975bf4e21d704555d6d813d136dbdd9e447c5dd4a53188
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.